Research
What happens after Bitcoin enters Extreme Fear
Every day that the Market Signal fell to 24 or lower since 2013, and the price 30 days, 90 days, and 1 year later.
Today the Signal is 44 (Fear). The most recent Extreme Fear day was Jun 6, 2026. See the live Signal.
Summary
- Extreme Fear days
- 36
- Episodes
- 14
- Average 90-day return, all days
- +23.6%
- Episodes higher after 90 days
- 9 of 14
Each episode
Extreme Fear days that are not more than 10 days apart are one episode. The returns start from the price on the first day of the episode.
| Episode | Days | Lowest score | Price at start | 30 days | 90 days | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 3, 2026 to Jun 6, 2026 | 4 | 15 | $66,365 | −6.8% | +17.5% | n/a |
| Feb 5, 2026 to Feb 6, 2026 | 2 | 17 | $68,901 | −1.5% | +18.4% | n/a |
| Aug 18, 2023 | 1 | 23 | $26,292 | +0.9% | +40.5% | +125.5% |
| Nov 9, 2022 to Nov 12, 2022 | 4 | 7 | $17,507 | −1.8% | +31.3% | +109.2% |
| Jun 13, 2022 to Jun 19, 2022 | 7 | 11 | $24,166 | −18.8% | −10.6% | +7.5% |
| May 10, 2020 | 1 | 20 | $8,676 | +12.0% | +34.7% | +565.8% |
| Mar 12, 2020 to Mar 18, 2020 | 6 | 0 | $6,668 | +3.1% | +46.8% | +752.6% |
| Dec 17, 2019 to Dec 18, 2019 | 2 | 17 | $6,788 | +27.8% | −26.4% | +195.9% |
| Nov 22, 2019 to Nov 25, 2019 | 3 | 14 | $7,345 | −1.6% | +30.4% | +154.6% |
| Sep 25, 2019 | 1 | 21 | $8,443 | −6.6% | −13.6% | +23.7% |
| Nov 25, 2018 | 1 | 21 | $3,757 | +0.4% | +5.9% | +85.3% |
| Jan 13, 2015 to Jan 14, 2015 | 2 | 7 | $239 | −7.8% | −2.6% | +80.1% |
| Oct 5, 2014 | 1 | 19 | $316 | +3.6% | −3.8% | −24.4% |
| Feb 25, 2014 | 1 | 21 | $502 | +8.3% | +16.1% | −52.5% |
| Average of episodes | +0.8% | +13.2% | +168.6% |
What the data shows
Results after 30 days are mixed. Some episodes went up fast. Others went down first.
Results after 90 days are positive more often. The tables above show the count for each period.
A low score can come early in a decline. In June 2022 the price fell further for weeks after the first Extreme Fear day.
The sample is small. There are only a few episodes, and the market was different in each period. Use the data as context. Do not use it as a forecast.
Method
- Score. The daily Market Signal: a 0 to 100 score from the 1-day, 3-day, 90-day, and 2-year returns, adjusted by volume.
- Extreme Fear. A daily score of 24 or lower.
- Price. The daily average price in US dollars.
- Returns. The change from the price on the day to the price 30 days, 90 days, and 365 days later. Days with no later price show n/a.
- Costs. The returns do not include fees, spreads, or taxes.
- Updates. This page reads the same data as the app. A new Extreme Fear day shows here the next time the data updates.
Every day in the data
| Date | Signal | Price | 30 days | 90 days | 1 year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | 24 | $60,778 | +4.0% | +33.0% | n/a |
| Jun 5, 2026 | 21 | $61,862 | +1.5% | +27.9% | n/a |
| Jun 4, 2026 | 15 | $63,494 | −1.2% | +21.5% | n/a |
| Jun 3, 2026 | 19 | $66,365 | −6.8% | +17.5% | n/a |
| Feb 6, 2026 | 19 | $67,082 | +0.1% | +20.2% | n/a |
| Feb 5, 2026 | 17 | $68,901 | −1.5% | +18.4% | n/a |
| Aug 18, 2023 | 23 | $26,292 | +0.9% | +40.5% | +125.5% |
| Nov 12, 2022 | 22 | $16,821 | +1.1% | +29.4% | +120.5% |
| Nov 11, 2022 | 20 | $17,083 | +0.4% | +31.9% | +117.1% |
| Nov 10, 2022 | 13 | $16,953 | +1.2% | +36.3% | +118.0% |
| Nov 9, 2022 | 7 | $17,507 | −1.8% | +31.3% | +109.2% |
| Jun 19, 2022 | 21 | $19,286 | +16.8% | +3.4% | +37.4% |
| Jun 18, 2022 | 20 | $19,299 | +13.2% | +2.1% | +37.4% |
| Jun 17, 2022 | 23 | $20,679 | +2.6% | −3.3% | +28.0% |
| Jun 16, 2022 | 24 | $21,408 | −2.5% | −5.5% | +20.4% |
| Jun 15, 2022 | 14 | $21,363 | −2.7% | +0.7% | +17.5% |
| Jun 14, 2022 | 11 | $22,159 | −8.9% | −0.1% | +16.5% |
| Jun 13, 2022 | 21 | $24,166 | −18.8% | −10.6% | +7.5% |
| May 10, 2020 | 20 | $8,676 | +12.0% | +34.7% | +565.8% |
| Mar 18, 2020 | 24 | $5,290 | +33.7% | +79.5% | +1004.7% |
| Mar 16, 2020 | 14 | $4,995 | +36.1% | +88.2% | +1007.8% |
| Mar 15, 2020 | 12 | $5,306 | +29.7% | +77.7% | +982.8% |
| Mar 14, 2020 | 11 | $5,419 | +24.6% | +73.6% | +1015.2% |
| Mar 13, 2020 | 0 | $5,287 | +31.4% | +82.2% | +1012.3% |
| Mar 12, 2020 | 11 | $6,668 | +3.1% | +46.8% | +752.6% |
| Dec 18, 2019 | 17 | $6,779 | +30.5% | −21.6% | +233.4% |
| Dec 17, 2019 | 22 | $6,788 | +27.8% | −26.4% | +195.9% |
| Nov 25, 2019 | 18 | $6,964 | +3.5% | +41.7% | +170.8% |
| Nov 24, 2019 | 24 | $7,144 | +2.2% | +35.2% | +158.2% |
| Nov 22, 2019 | 14 | $7,345 | −1.6% | +30.4% | +154.6% |
| Sep 25, 2019 | 21 | $8,443 | −6.6% | −13.6% | +23.7% |
| Nov 25, 2018 | 21 | $3,757 | +0.4% | +5.9% | +85.3% |
| Jan 14, 2015 | 7 | $197 | +18.5% | +11.4% | +119.0% |
| Jan 13, 2015 | 24 | $239 | −7.8% | −2.6% | +80.1% |
| Oct 5, 2014 | 19 | $316 | +3.6% | −3.8% | −24.4% |
| Feb 25, 2014 | 21 | $502 | +8.3% | +16.1% | −52.5% |
Get an alert at the next one
Set a Signal alert in Fast Bitcoin for a score of 24 or lower. The app sends a push notification or an email when the score gets there.
This page shows market data and history. It does not give investment advice. Past results do not predict future results.